First day back from the all-star break as we begin the 2nd half of the MLB season. The Triple Trend Formula (TTF) had a pretty good 1st half in terms of winning percentage, going 572 - 471 (55%). However, it was down 65.79 units.
This reason for this, obviously, is the moneyline odds on the favorites discounted the overall winning % and I didn't have enough underdog winners to make up for it. A common dilemma in MLB betting.
These past few days, I thought about how to address this discrepancy and how to bring the betting units in line with my positive winning %. After careful analysis, I decided against making any changes to the formula itself, as I don't see an issue there. Rather, I will no longer be including every single game as an official pick.
For those of you that have read my Detailed Explanation of the TTF, now updated, you know I always recommended no bet on the lowest rated (1 unit) favorites. However, I thought it would be disingenuous not to count these games in my overall record anyway as I did rate them and show the table for all to see. But I've changed my mind about this.
I have decided to stop including games that show moneyline favorites with a rating of +0.5 - +3 (1 unit) in my record. I will only make favorites that rate +3.5 (at least 2 units) or better as an official pick. I will still apply the TTF to every game and show the tables, but those lower rated moneyline favorites will not count towards my record, as I won't be endorsing them. So, now on a typical 15 game MLB card, there may be just 10 official picks. But, they will represent the strongest 10 games on the card according to the TTF.
I believe that this change will still enable those that want to see my work on all the MLB match ups on a given day to do so, with my clear indication that I don't endorse a play on all of them. Specifically, the lower rated moneyline favorites.
I feel that this change is still in line with my objective of transparency, while now being able to show and measure the true success of the Triple Trend Formula.
A reminder, we no longer require a subscription to access the TTF. I want as many players as possible to use them in their handicapping. Instead, I'm relying on those that see a benefit in using the tables to pay an amount in line with what they think it's worth to them. It's an easy PayPal.Me transaction here. Thank you in advance.
Friday's tables below:
| 2:20pm | Texas +170 | Chicago Cubs -200 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | +1 (12 - .755) | +3 (4 - .786) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | -1 Perez (1.42) | +3 Hendricks (1.03) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | -1.5 (28 - 1.46) | +0.5 (9 - 1.24) |
| Totals | -1.5 | +6.5 |
| Advantage (units) | ------- | +8 (3 units) |
| 7:05pm | Boston +120 | N.Y. Yankees -140 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | +3 (1 - .833) | -2 (24 - .711) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | +1 Wright (1.21) | -1 Pineda (1.37) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | +0.5 (10 - 1.28) | +1.5 (3 - 1.11) |
| Totals | +4.5 | -1.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | +6 (2 units) | ------- |
| 7:05pm | N.Y. Mets -124 | Philadelphia +114 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | -1 (21 - .725) | -3 (29 - .690) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | +1 Colon (1.22) | +1 Hellickson (1.20) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | -1 (7 - 1.22) | -0.5 (19 - 1.37) |
| Totals | -1 | -2.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | +1.5 (No Bet) | ------- |
| 7:05pm | Pittsburgh +180 | Washington -210 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | 0 (13 - .751) | +1 (11 - .757) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | -3 Liriano (1.62) | +3 Strasburg (1.01) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | 0 (17 - 1.35) | +1.5 (4 - 1.15) |
| Totals | -3 | +5.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | ------- | +8.5 (3 units) |
| 7:10pm | Milwaukee +105 | Cincinnati -125 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | -2 (23 - .715) | -3 (29 - .694) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | -3 Garza (1.77) | 0 De Sclafani (1.29) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | -1.5 (27 - 1.45) | -1.5 (30 - 1.59) |
| Totals | -6.5 | -4.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | ------- | +2 (No Bet) |
| 7:10pm | Baltimore +110 | Tampa Bay -130 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | +3 (2 - .800) | -1 (20 - .726) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | -3 Gallardo (1.68) | -1 Archer (1.44) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | 0 (16 - 1.33) | -0.5 (22 - 1.41) |
| Totals | 0 | -2.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | +2.5 (1 unit) | ------- |
| 7:10pm | Kansas City +135 | Detroit -155 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | -1 (19 - .731) | +2 (8 - .766) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | +1 Kennedy (1.19) | +2 Verlander (1.13) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | -1 (6 - 1.21) | -0.5 (20 - 1.40) |
| Totals | -1 | +3.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | ------- | +4.5 (2 units) |
| 7:35pm | Colorado -130 | Atlanta +110 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | +3 (3 - .795) | -3 (20 - .649) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | -2 De La Rosa (1.55) | +3 Harrell (0.73) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | -1 (24 - 1.44) | -1.5 (28 - 1.46) |
| Totals | 0 | -1.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | +1.5 (No Bet) | ------- |
| 8:10pm | Cleveland -145 | Minnesota +125 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | +1 (10 - .758) | 0 (16 - .739) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | +2 Carrasco (1.10) | 0 Santana (1.29) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | +0.5 (12 - 1.30) | -0.5 (22 - 1.41) |
| Totals | +3.5 | -0.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | +4 (2 units) | ------- |
| 8:15pm | Miami +130 | St. Louis -150 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | 0 (14 - .743) | +2 (5 - .780) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | 0 Chen (1.27) | 0 Garcia (1.35) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | 0 (14 - 1.31) | +1 (5 - 1.19) |
| Totals | 0 | +3 |
| Advantage (bet) | ------- | +3 (No Bet) |
| 9:40pm | L.A. Dodgers -113 | Arizona -107 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | -2 (25 - .708) | +1 (9 - .761) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | 0 Norris (1.32) | -2 Corbin (1.48) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | +1.5 (1 - 1.02) | -1 (24 - 1.43) |
| Totals | -0.5 | -2 |
| Advantage (bet) | +1.5 (No Bet) | ------- |
| 10:05pm | Chicago White Sox +110 | L.A. Angels -130 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | -1 (22 - .717) | 0 (18 - .736) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | -1 Gonzalez (1.39) | 0 Santiago (1.31) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | -1 (25 - 1.44) | 0 (17 - 1.35) |
| Totals | -3 | 0 |
| Advantage (bet) | ------- | +3 (No Bet) |
| 10:05pm | Toronto +105 | Oakland -125 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | +2 (6 - .774) | -3 (27 - .701) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | 0 Stroman (1.33) | +2 Hill (1.09) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | +0.5 (11 - 1.29) | 0 (14 - 1.31) |
| Totals | +2.5 | -1 |
| Advantage (bet) | +3.5 (2 units) | ------- |
| 10:10pm | Houston -105 | Seattle -115 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | 0 (17 - .738) | +2 (7 - .772) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | +1 Fister (1.24) | -3 Paxton (1.59) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | +1.5 (2 - 1.09) | +1 (7 - 1.22) |
| Totals | +2.5 | 0 |
| Advantage (bet) | +2.5 (1 unit) | ------- |
| 10:40pm | San Francisco -210 | San Diego +180 |
| Team OPS (rank - OPS) | 0 (15 - .742) | -2 (26 - .703) |
| Starting Pitcher WHIP (WHIP) | +3 Bumgarner (0.96) | -3 Cashner (1.56) |
| Team Relief WHIP (rank - WHIP) | +0.5 (12 - 1.30) | -0.5 (20 - 1.40) |
| Totals | +3.5 | -5.5 |
| Advantage (bet) | +9 (3 units) | ------- |
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