Week 15 results: 6-10, -9.43 units
YTD results: 80-96-6 (45%), -68.54 units, -12.46% ROI
Contributions: PayPal.Me/WinniBet
Monday's analysis and Week 16 tables below:
This one is tough to handicap simply because it's hard to figure out the mentality of the Cowboys, who have already clinched home field throughout in the NFC. I've heard and read Jerry Jones' and Jason Garrett's comments about playing their starters as normal, but I don't buy it. I understand they want to keep momentum heading into the playoffs, but it makes no sense to take unnecessary risks with key players.
I figure Detroit will be highly motivated as they still can get the #2 seed, or can miss the playoffs. A win tonight at least clinches a berth.
Having said these things, the CRS rates this one DAL -13.0, but the CRS doesn't account for motivation or personnel. But it does tell me they are the better team and I'm sure whichever players are on the field, they will be playing to win.
So, if you must, I recommend DAL -6.
I also have a feeling that Romo could see action tonight. I've heard nothing from the Cowboys that indicates he'll play, but it makes sense to me to give him some snaps in these last two meaningless game in case they need him in the playoffs. If he does play, I believe he'll want to prove he's still got it.
Good luck, players!
 |  |  |
| Thurs., Dec. 22 - 8:25pm | N.Y. Giants -2.5 | Philadelphia +2.5 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +1.4 | +2.6 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | -1.5 (30 - 26.6) | 0 (13 - 38.1) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | +1.5 (3 - 17.9) | 0 (13 - 21.4) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1 Manning (89.3) | -1.5 Wentz (78.5) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +0.4 | +4.1 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +3.7 | -3.7 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | PHI +2.5 (4 units) |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 1:00pm | Miami +4 | Buffalo -4 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | -2.2 | +1.5 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | -1 (26 - 29.9) | +0.5 (11 - 38.4) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | 0 (14 - 22.4) | 0 (14 - 22.4) |
| QB Rating (rating) | +1.5 Moore (129.2) | -1.5 Taylor (86.8) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | -1.7 | +3.5 |
| Calculated Relative Spread (differential) | +5.2 | -5.2 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | BUF -4 (1 unit) |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 1:00pm | Atlanta -2.5 | Carolina +2.5 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +8.1 | -0.4 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | +1.5 (51.6) | 0 (17 - 35.7) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | -1 (26 - 25.6) | -1 (25 - 25.1) |
| QB Rating (rating) | +1.5 Ryan (114.8) | -1.5 Newton (80.8) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +10.1 | +0.1 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | -10.0 | +10.0 |
| Pick (units) | ATL -2.5 (4 units) | ------- |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 1:00pm | Washington -3 | Chicago +3 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +1.3 | -5.4 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | +1.5 (4 - 44.4) | -1.5 (29 - 28.0) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | -0.5 (24 - 24.5) | 0 (16 - 22.9) |
| QB Rating (rating) | +0.5 Cousins (98.3) | -1.5 Barkley (75.2) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +2.8 | -5.4 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | -8.2 | +8.2 |
| Pick (units) | WAS -3 (3 units) | ------- |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 1:00pm | San Diego -6 | Cleveland +6 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +1.6 | -12.1 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | +0.5 (12 - 28.3) | -1.5 (31 - 26.3) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | -1.5 (29 - 26.1) | -1.5 (31 - 29.1) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1 Rivers (89.8) | -1.5 Griffin III (58.5) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | -0.4 | -13.6 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | -13.2 | +13.2 |
| Pick (units) | SD -6 (4 units) | ------- |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 1:00pm | Minnesota +7 | Green Bay -7 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +0.4 | +2.1 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | -0.5 (24 - 30.9) | +1 (5 - 43.1) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | +1 (6 - 18.5) | -0.5 (22 - 24.2) |
| QB Rating (rating) | +0.5 Bradford (97.0) | +1 Rodgers (100.3) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +1.4 | +6.6 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +5.2 | -5.2 |
| Pick (units) | MIN +7 (1 unit) | ------- |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 1:00pm | Tennessee -4.5 | Jacksonville +4.5 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +0.6 | -6.2 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | 0 (14 - 37.9) | -1 (27 - 29.1) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | 0 (18 - 23.1) | -1 (26 - 25.6) |
| QB Rating (rating) | +0.5 Mariota (96.7) | -0.5 Bortles (75.8) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +1.1 | -5.7 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | -6.8 | +6.8 |
| Pick (units) | TEN -4.5 (2 units) | ------- |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 1:00pm | N.Y. Jets +16.5 | New England -16.5 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | -9.3 | +7.3 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | -1 (25 - 30.2) | +1 (8 - 40.9) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | -1 (26 - 25.6) | +1.5 (1 - 16.6) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1.5 Petty (64.6) | +1.5 Brady (109.7) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | -12.8 | +14.3 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +27.1 | -27.1 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | NE -16.5 (5 units) |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 4:05pm | Indianapolis +3 | Oakland -3 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +1.2 | +4.4 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | +1 (7 - 41.3) | +1 (9 - 40.6) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | -0.5 (22 - 24.2) | -0.5 (24 - 21.0) |
| QB Rating (rating) | +0.5 Luck (97.1) | 0 Carr (95.2) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +2.2 | +7.9 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +5.7 | -5.7 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | OAK -3 (2 units) |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 4:25pm | Tampa Bay +3 | New Orleans -3 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +0.4 | +1.3 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | -0.5 (21 - 32.7) | +1.5 (2 - 44.7) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | 0 (17 - 23.0) | -1.5 (30 - 28.0) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1 Winston (87.2) | +1.5 Brees (103.0) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | -1.1 | +5.8 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +6.9 | -6.9 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | NO -3 (3 unit) |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 4:25pm | Arizona +7.5 | Seattle -7.5 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | -0.8 | +3.1 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | 0 (20 - 32.9) | 0 (16 - 36.3) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | 0 (19 - 23.2) | +1.5 (2 - 16.8) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1.5 Palmer (85.8) | -0.5 Wilson (90.0) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | -2.3 | +7.1 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +9.4 | -9.4 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | SEA -7.5 (1 unit) |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 4:25pm | San Francisco +3 | Los Angeles -3 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | -12.1 | -8.9 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | -1 (28 - 28.1) | -1.5 (32 - 22.4) |
| Defense (rank - ypg) | -1.5 (32 - 31.0) | 0 (20 - 23.4) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1.5 Kaepernick (86.6) | -1.5 Goff (65.7) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | -16.1 | -8.9 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +7.2 | -7.2 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | LA -3 (3 units) |
 |  |
|
| Sat., Dec. 24 - 8:25pm | Cincinnati +1.5 | Houston -1.5 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | -0.2 | -2.5 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | 0 (15 - 36.6) | -0.5 (22 - 32.1) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | +0.5 (11- 20.9) | +0.5 (12 - 21.0) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -0.5 Dalton (91.9) | 0 Savage (-) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | -0.2 | +0.5 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +0.7 | -0.7 |
| Pick (units) | CIN +1.5 (1 unit) | ------- |
 |  |
|
| Sun., Dec. 25 - 4:30pm | Baltimore +5 | Pittsburgh -5 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +1.9 | +5.3 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | 0 (18 - 35.1) | +0.5 (10 - 38.9) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | +1 (7 - 18.8) | +0.5 (9 - 19.7) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1.5 Flacco (84.8) | 0 Roethlisberger (94.9) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +1.4 | +9.3 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +7.9 | -7.9 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | PIT -5 (2 units) |
 |  |
|
| Sun., Dec. 25 - 8:30pm | Denver +3 | Kansas City -3 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | +4.5 | +4.2 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | -0.5 (23 - 31.6) | 0 (19 - 34.0) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | +1.5 (4 - 18.4) | +1 (8 - 19.6) |
| QB Rating (rating) | -1 Siemien (88.1) | -0.5 Smith (90.3) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +4.5 | +7.7 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +3.2 | -3.2 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | KC -3 (1 unit) |
 |  |
|
| Mon., Dec. 26 - 8:30pm | Detroit +7 | Dallas -7 |
| Simple Rating System (SRS) | -0.1 | +6.9 |
| Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%) | +1 (6 - 42.2) | +1.5 (2 - 44.7) |
| Defense (rank - ppg) | +0.5 (10 - 20.4) | +1.5 (4 - 18.4) |
| QB Rating (rating) | 0 Stafford (95.8) | +1.5 Prescott (103.2) |
| Home Field | 0 | +3 |
| Totals | +1.4 | +14.4 |
| Calculated Relative Spread | +13.0 | -13.0 |
| Pick (units) | ------- | DAL -7 (3 units) |
Leave a Reply